气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-019-0391-x
	Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection
	Simpson I.R.; Yeager S.G.; McKinnon K.A.; Deser C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17520894
卷号	12 期号:8
英文摘要	The characteristics of the North Atlantic jet stream play a key role in the weather and climate of western Europe. Although much of the year-to-year variability in the jet stream arises from internal atmospheric processes that are inherently unpredictable on timescales beyond a few days to weeks, any low-frequency variability or long-term trends that can be considered forced by slowly varying boundary conditions offer the potential for extended range predictability of climatological conditions in western Europe. Here we demonstrate that station-based precipitation observations have displayed pronounced multidecadal variability over the past century in western Europe during the late winter. We then use these precipitation observations as an independent verification of the multidecadal Atlantic jet stream variability found in reanalysis products. Both signals are highly correlated with sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic that is well predicted in initialized decadal prediction experiments with a coupled general circulation model. Combining the model-based predictions of the sea surface temperature with the observed relationship between precipitation and sea surface temperature, we show that there is great potential for skilful predictions of the forthcoming decadal average of March precipitation in western Europe, with hindcasts for the UK and Portugal yielding anomaly correlation coefficients of 0.82 and 0.69, respectively. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	boundary condition; climate conditions; climate signal; decadal variation; general circulation model; jet stream; long-term change; precipitation (climatology); prediction; sea surface temperature; timescale; weather; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Portugal; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124633
作者单位	Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Simpson I.R.,Yeager S.G.,McKinnon K.A.,等. Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection[J],2019,12(8).
APA	Simpson I.R.,Yeager S.G.,McKinnon K.A.,&Deser C..(2019).Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection.Nature Geoscience,12(8).
MLA	Simpson I.R.,et al."Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection".Nature Geoscience 12.8(2019).