气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0587-5
	Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions
	Howe L.C.; MacInnis B.; Krosnick J.A.; Markowitz E.M.; Socolow R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:11
英文摘要	Predictions about the effects of climate change cannot be made with complete certainty, so acknowledging uncertainty may increase trust in scientists and public acceptance of their messages. Here we show that this is true regarding expressions of uncertainty, unless they are also accompanied by acknowledgements of irreducible uncertainty. A representative national sample of Americans read predictions about effects of global warming on sea level that included either a worst-case scenario (high partially bounded uncertainty) or the best and worst cases (fully bounded uncertainty). Compared to a control condition, expressing fully bounded but not high partially bounded uncertainty increased trust in scientists and message acceptance. However, these effects were eliminated when fully bounded uncertainty was accompanied by an acknowledgement that the full effects of sea-level rise cannot be quantified because of unpredictable storm surges. Thus, expressions of fully bounded uncertainty alone may enhance confidence in scientists and their assertions but not when the full extent of inevitable uncertainty is acknowledged. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; global warming; prediction; sea level change; storm surge; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124318
作者单位	Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Communications, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Departments of Political Science and Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Amherst, MA, United States; Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Howe L.C.,MacInnis B.,Krosnick J.A.,等. Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions[J],2019,9(11).
APA	Howe L.C.,MacInnis B.,Krosnick J.A.,Markowitz E.M.,&Socolow R..(2019).Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions.Nature Climate Change,9(11).
MLA	Howe L.C.,et al."Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions".Nature Climate Change 9.11(2019).