气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0619-1
	An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback
	Thackeray C.W.; Hall A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	9 期号:12
英文摘要	Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially over recent decades, a trend projected to continue. Shrinking ice reduces surface albedo, leading to greater surface solar absorption, thus amplifying warming and driving further melt. This sea-ice albedo feedback (SIAF) is a key driver of Arctic climate change and an important uncertainty source in climate model projections. Using an ensemble of models, we demonstrate an emergent relationship between future SIAF and an observable version of SIAF in the current climate’s seasonal cycle. This relationship is robust in constraining SIAF over the coming decades (Pearson’s r = 0.76), and then it degrades. The degradation occurs because some models begin producing ice-free conditions, signalling a transition to a new ice regime. The relationship is strengthened when models with unrealistically thin historical ice are excluded. Because of this tight relationship, reducing model errors in the current climate’s seasonal SIAF and ice thickness can narrow SIAF spread under climate change. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; ice thickness; sea ice; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124296
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thackeray C.W.,Hall A.. An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback[J],2019,9(12).
APA	Thackeray C.W.,&Hall A..(2019).An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback.Nature Climate Change,9(12).
MLA	Thackeray C.W.,et al."An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback".Nature Climate Change 9.12(2019).