气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0658-7
	Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds
	King A.D.; Lane T.P.; Henley B.J.; Brown J.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758678X
卷号	10 期号:1
英文摘要	There has recently been interest in understanding the differences between specific levels of global warming, especially the Paris Agreement limits of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, different model experiments1–3 have been used in these analyses under varying rates of increase in global-average temperature. Here, we use climate model simulations to show that, for a given global temperature, most land is significantly warmer in a rapidly warming (transient) case than in a quasi-equilibrium climate. This results in more than 90% of the world’s population experiencing a warmer local climate under transient global warming than equilibrium global warming. Relative to differences between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits, the differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium states are substantial. For many land regions, the probability of very warm seasons is at least two times greater in a transient climate than in a quasi-equilibrium equivalent. In developing regions, there are sizable differences between transient and quasi-equilibrium climates that underline the importance of explicitly framing projections. Our study highlights the need to better understand differences between future climates under rapid warming and quasi-equilibrium conditions for the development of climate change adaptation policies. Yet, current multi-model experiments1,4 are not designed for this purpose. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/124254
作者单位	School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	King A.D.,Lane T.P.,Henley B.J.,et al. Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds[J],2020,10(1).
APA	King A.D.,Lane T.P.,Henley B.J.,&Brown J.R..(2020).Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds.Nature Climate Change,10(1).
MLA	King A.D.,et al."Global and regional impacts differ between transient and equilibrium warmer worlds".Nature Climate Change 10.1(2020).