气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12927
	The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years
	Thomas M.K.; Fontana S.; Reyes M.; Kehoe M.; Pomati F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1461023X
卷号	21 期号:5
英文摘要	Forecasting changes to ecological communities is one of the central challenges in ecology. However, nonlinear dependencies, biotic interactions and data limitations have limited our ability to assess how predictable communities are. Here, we used a machine learning approach and environmental monitoring data (biological, physical and chemical) to assess the predictability of phytoplankton cell density in one lake across an unprecedented range of time-scales. Communities were highly predictable over hours to months: model R2 decreased from 0.89 at 4 hours to 0.74 at 1 month, and in a long-term dataset lacking fine spatial resolution, from 0.46 at 1 month to 0.32 at 10 years. When cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal cell densities were examined separately, model-inferred environmental growth dependencies matched laboratory studies, and suggested novel trade-offs governing their competition. High-frequency monitoring and machine learning can set prediction targets for process-based models and help elucidate the mechanisms underlying ecological dynamics. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Cyanobacteria; environmental monitoring; forecasting; machine learning; phytoplankton; prediction; time series
语种	英语
scopus关键词	algae; Cyanobacteria; Eukaryota; cyanobacterium; environmental monitoring; eutrophication; lake; phytoplankton; Cyanobacteria; Environmental Monitoring; Eutrophication; Lakes; Phytoplankton
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/121325
作者单位	Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland; Centre for Ocean Life, DTU Aqua, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark; Biodiversity and Conservation Biology, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Global Institute for Water Security and School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatechwan, Saskatoon, Canada; Institute of Integrative Biology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH)Zürich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas M.K.,Fontana S.,Reyes M.,et al. The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years[J],2018,21(5).
APA	Thomas M.K.,Fontana S.,Reyes M.,Kehoe M.,&Pomati F..(2018).The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years.Ecology Letters,21(5).
MLA	Thomas M.K.,et al."The predictability of a lake phytoplankton community, over time-scales of hours to years".Ecology Letters 21.5(2018).