气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104705
	Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model
	Ayugi B.; Tan G.; Gnitou G.T.; Ojara M.; Ongoma V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	232
英文摘要	This study assesses the performance of ten Regional Climate Model (RCMs) from the latest version of Rossby Centre of Atmospheric models (RCA4) in the simulation of precipitation over Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) from 1951–2005. The evaluation was performed against observed data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Results for mean seasonal analyses demonstrate an underestimation of March–May (MAM) and June–September (JJAS) precipitation whilst October to December (OND) precipitation is overestimated. Further assessment on the annual scale depicts underestimation of rainfall. However, the west to east gradient representing heavier to lighter precipitation and bimodal patterns of the north to south rainfall band is well captured by most models. The models fairly reproduce precipitation variability over the southeast region as compared to the northwest parts of the study domain. The mean ensemble invariably outperforms the individual RCA4 models due to its minimal probability deviance in precipitation in each zone and throughout the GHA region. The overall evaluation shows weak correspondence of the model data with observed CRU based on statistical metrics. The top five performing models are: MIROC5, CSIRO, CM5A-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, and EC-EARTH. Large variations of model performance are noted from one model to model, and from one region to the other. The ensemble mean of the outperforming RCMs reproduces the rainfall climatology over study domain with reasonable skill and the findings of this study will be a base for the study of extreme floods/droughts events in the region. © 2019 The Authors
英文关键词	CORDEX; Greater Horn of Africa; Precipitation; Regional climate models; Rossby centre atmospheric models
学科领域	Climatology; Precipitation (chemical); Rain; Atmospheric model; CORDEX; Global precipitation; Greater Horn of Africa; Precipitation variability; Rainfall climatologies; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate models; Climate models; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; historical perspective; precipitation assessment; regional climate; Rossby wave; seasonal variation; Horn of Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Precipitation (chemical); Rain; Atmospheric model; CORDEX; Global precipitation; Greater Horn of Africa; Precipitation variability; Rainfall climatologies; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate models; Climate models; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; historical perspective; precipitation assessment; regional climate; Rossby wave; seasonal variation; Horn of Africa
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120579
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education, Nanjing, University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China; School of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China; Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Clement Hill Road, P.O. Box 7025, Kampala, Uganda; School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment, The University of the South Pacific, Laucala Campus Private Bag, Suva, Fiji
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ayugi B.,Tan G.,Gnitou G.T.,et al. Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model[J],2020,232.
APA	Ayugi B.,Tan G.,Gnitou G.T.,Ojara M.,&Ongoma V..(2020).Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model.Atmospheric Research,232.
MLA	Ayugi B.,et al."Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model".Atmospheric Research 232(2020).