气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104862
	Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model
	Sokol Z.; Minářová J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	237
英文摘要	Lightning is considered one of the most severe meteorological hazards. Currently, many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models make operational use of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI), which enables one to determine areas prone to lightning. In this study, we investigated the ability of LPI to forecast lightning by comparing forecasts of LPI among four configurations of the COSMO NWP model. The four configurations of the COSMO NWP model differ in horizontal resolution (1.2 and 2.2 km) and cloud microphysical scheme (1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics). We evaluated binary forecasts of LPI for varying lead time (1−10h) against the observed number and peak current of lightning flashes recorded by EUCLID network. The evaluation was performed for eight area sizes (4.8 km × 4.8 km to 240 km × 240 km) around model grid points and for 8 days in 2018 when thunderstorms occurred in Central Europe. To assess the success of lightning prediction, we evaluated LPI forecasts using the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AROC). Results show that the forecasts almost always outperformed the random forecast (AROC = 0.5). As expected, the prediction was more successful for models having higher resolution and the models comprising 2-moment cloud microphysics. The results of the evaluation of LPI forecasts compared to the number of observed lightning were similar to those compared to the sum of the observed peak current. However, differences in results among the four configurations of the model were larger in the latter case. Based on the performed evaluation, we confirm that LPI is a suitable tool for implicit forecasting of lightning in the COSMO NWP model. © 2020
学科领域	Weather forecasting; Central Europe; Cloud microphysics; Higher resolution; Horizontal resolution; Lightning flashes; Numerical weather prediction models; Operational use; Receiver operating characteristics; Lightning; cloud microphysics; image resolution; lightning; numerical model; thunderstorm; weather forecasting; Central Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Weather forecasting; Central Europe; Cloud microphysics; Higher resolution; Horizontal resolution; Lightning flashes; Numerical weather prediction models; Operational use; Receiver operating characteristics; Lightning; cloud microphysics; image resolution; lightning; numerical model; thunderstorm; weather forecasting; Central Europe
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120451
作者单位	Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Boční II 1401, Prague, 141 00, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sokol Z.,Minářová J.. Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model[J],2020,237.
APA	Sokol Z.,&Minářová J..(2020).Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model.Atmospheric Research,237.
MLA	Sokol Z.,et al."Impact of 1- and 2-moment cloud microphysics and horizontal resolution on lightning Potential Index within COSMO NWP model".Atmospheric Research 237(2020).