气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-7-321-2013
	Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice
	Rogers T.S.; Walsh J.E.; Rupp T.S.; Brigham L.W.; Sfraga M.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	19940416
卷号	7 期号:1
英文摘要	There is an emerging need for regional applications of sea ice projections to provide more accuracy and greater detail to scientists, national, state and local planners, and other stakeholders. The present study offers a prototype for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study to bridge observational data, climate model simulations, and user needs. The study's first component is an observationally based evaluation of Arctic sea ice trends during 1980-2008, with an emphasis on seasonal and regional differences relative to the overall pan-Arctic trend. Regional sea ice loss has varied, with a significantly larger decline of winter maximum (January-March) extent in the Atlantic region than in other sectors. A lead-lag regression analysis of Atlantic sea ice extent and ocean temperatures indicates that reduced sea ice extent is associated with increased Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Correlations between the two variables are greater when ocean temperatures lag rather than lead sea ice. The performance of 13 global climate models is evaluated using three metrics to compare sea ice simulations with the observed record. We rank models over the pan-Arctic domain and regional quadrants and synthesize model performance across several different studies. The best performing models project reduced ice cover across key access routes in the Arctic through 2100, with a lengthening of seasons for marine operations by 1-3 months. This assessment suggests that the Northwest and Northeast Passages hold potential for enhanced marine access to the Arctic in the future, including shipping and resource development opportunities. © 2013 Author(s).
学科领域	climate modeling; cryosphere; future prospect; interdisciplinary approach; model test; observational method; prediction; resource development; sea ice; shipping; stakeholder; trend analysis; Arctic Ocean
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; cryosphere; future prospect; interdisciplinary approach; model test; observational method; prediction; resource development; sea ice; shipping; stakeholder; trend analysis; Arctic Ocean
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/120302
作者单位	International Arctic Research Center, P.O. Box 757340, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, 3352 College Road, Fairbanks, AK 99709, United States; University of Alaska Geography Program, P.O. Box 757200, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rogers T.S.,Walsh J.E.,Rupp T.S.,et al. Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice[J],2013,7(1).
APA	Rogers T.S.,Walsh J.E.,Rupp T.S.,Brigham L.W.,&Sfraga M..(2013).Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice.Cryosphere,7(1).
MLA	Rogers T.S.,et al."Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice".Cryosphere 7.1(2013).