气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-8-2409-2014
	Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea
	Löptien U.; Axell L.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	19940416
卷号	8 期号:6
英文摘要	The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea located in a densely populated area in northern Europe. Severe sea ice conditions have the potential to hinder the intense ship traffic considerably. Thus, sea ice fore- and nowcasts are regularly provided by the national weather services. Typically, the forecast comprises several ice properties that are distributed as prognostic variables, but their actual usefulness is difficult to measure, and the ship captains must determine their relative importance and relevance for optimal ship speed and safety ad hoc. The present study provides a more objective approach by comparing the ship speeds, obtained by the automatic identification system (AIS), with the respective forecasted ice conditions. We find that, despite an unavoidable random component, this information is useful to constrain and rate fore- and nowcasts. More precisely, 62-67% of ship speed variations can be explained by the forecasted ice properties when fitting a mixed-effect model. This statistical fit is based on a test region in the Bothnian Sea during the severe winter 2011 and employs 15 to 25 min averages of ship speed. © Author(s) 2014.
学科领域	automation; ice cover; information system; sea ice; ship motion; statistical analysis; velocity profile; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	automation; ice cover; information system; sea ice; ship motion; statistical analysis; velocity profile; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119993
作者单位	GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24105, Germany; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Löptien U.,Axell L.. Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea[J],2014,8(6).
APA	Löptien U.,&Axell L..(2014).Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea.Cryosphere,8(6).
MLA	Löptien U.,et al."Ice and AIS: Ship speed data and sea ice forecasts in the Baltic Sea".Cryosphere 8.6(2014).