气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-9-1039-2015
	Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming
	Fürst J.J.; Goelzer H.; Huybrechts P.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	19940416
卷号	9 期号:3
英文摘要	Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000-2010), both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice discharge from calving glaciers have contributed 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr-1 to global sea-level rise, with a relative contribution of 60 and 40% respectively. Here we use a higher-order ice flow model, spun up to present day, to simulate future ice volume changes driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. For these projections, the flow model accounts for runoff-induced basal lubrication and ocean warming-induced discharge increase at the marine margins. For a suite of 10 atmosphere and ocean general circulation models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios, the projected sea-level rise between 2000 and 2100 lies in the range of +1.4 to +16.6 cm. For two low emission scenarios, the projections are conducted up to 2300. Ice loss rates are found to abate for the most favourable scenario where the warming peaks in this century, allowing the ice sheet to maintain a geometry close to the present-day state. For the other moderate scenario, loss rates remain at a constant level over 300 years. In any scenario, volume loss is predominantly caused by increased surface melting as the contribution from enhanced ice discharge decreases over time and is self-limited by thinning and retreat of the marine margin, reducing the ice-ocean contact area. As confirmed by other studies, we find that the effect of enhanced basal lubrication on the volume evolution is negligible on centennial timescales. Our projections show that the observed rates of volume change over the last decades cannot simply be extrapolated over the 21st century on account of a different balance of processes causing ice loss over time. Our results also indicate that the largest source of uncertainty arises from the surface mass balance and the underlying climate change projections, not from ice dynamics. © Author(s) 2015.
学科领域	global warming; ice sheet; melting; sea level change; temperature gradient; volume change; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
语种	英语
scopus关键词	global warming; ice sheet; melting; sea level change; temperature gradient; volume change; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119899
作者单位	Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fürst J.J.,Goelzer H.,Huybrechts P.. Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming[J],2015,9(3).
APA	Fürst J.J.,Goelzer H.,&Huybrechts P..(2015).Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming.Cryosphere,9(3).
MLA	Fürst J.J.,et al."Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming".Cryosphere 9.3(2015).