气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya

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DOI	10.5194/tc-9-1105-2015
	Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya
	Shea J.M.; Immerzeel W.W.; Wagnon P.; Vincent C.; Bajracharya S.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	19940416
卷号	9 期号:3
英文摘要	In this study, we apply a glacier mass balance and ice redistribution model to examine the sensitivity of glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal to climate change. High-resolution temperature and precipitation fields derived from gridded station data, and bias-corrected with independent station observations, are used to drive the historical model from 1961 to 2007. The model is calibrated against geodetically derived estimates of net glacier mass change from 1992 to 2008, termini position of four large glaciers at the end of the calibration period, average velocities observed on selected debris-covered glaciers, and total glacierized area. We integrate field-based observations of glacier mass balance and ice thickness with remotely sensed observations of decadal glacier change to validate the model. Between 1961 and 2007, the mean modelled volume change over the Dudh Koshi basin is -6.4 ± 1.5 km3, a decrease of 15.6% from the original estimated ice volume in 1961. Modelled glacier area change between 1961 and 2007 is -101.0 ± 11.4 km2, a decrease of approximately 20% from the initial extent. The modelled glacier sensitivity to future climate change is high. Application of temperature and precipitation anomalies from warm/dry and wet/cold end-members of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 ensemble results in sustained mass loss from glaciers in the Everest region through the 21st century. © Author(s) 2015.
学科领域	glacier dynamics; glacier mass balance; precipitation assessment; temperature effect; twenty first century; volume change; Himalayas; Nepal; Sagarmatha [(ADS) Nepal]
语种	英语
scopus关键词	glacier dynamics; glacier mass balance; precipitation assessment; temperature effect; twenty first century; volume change; Himalayas; Nepal; Sagarmatha [(ADS) Nepal]
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119894
作者单位	International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; IRD/UJF - Grenoble 1/CNRS/G-INP, LTHE UMR 5564, LGGE UMR 5183, Grenoble, 38402, France; UJF - Grenoble 1/CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE) UMR 5183, Grenoble, 38041, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shea J.M.,Immerzeel W.W.,Wagnon P.,et al. Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya[J],2015,9(3).
APA	Shea J.M.,Immerzeel W.W.,Wagnon P.,Vincent C.,&Bajracharya S..(2015).Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya.Cryosphere,9(3).
MLA	Shea J.M.,et al."Modelling glacier change in the Everest region, Nepal Himalaya".Cryosphere 9.3(2015).