气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier

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DOI	10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
	Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier
	Faillettaz J.; Funk M.; Vagliasindi M.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	19940416
卷号	10 期号:3
英文摘要	A cold hanging glacier located on the south face of the Grandes Jorasses (Mont Blanc, Italy) broke off on the 23 and 29 September 2014 with a total estimated ice volume of 105 000m3. Thanks to accurate surface displacement measurements taken up to the final break-off, this event was successfully predicted 10 days in advance, enabling local authorities to take the necessary safety measures. The breakoff event also confirmed that surface displacements experienced a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time and demonstrates, using a retrospective analysis, their potential for the development of early-warning systems in real time. © 2016 Author(s).
学科领域	displacement; early warning system; forecasting method; glacier; power law; real time; Alps; Haute Savoie; Italy; Mont Blanc; Savoy Alps; Western Alps
语种	英语
scopus关键词	displacement; early warning system; forecasting method; glacier; power law; real time; Alps; Haute Savoie; Italy; Mont Blanc; Savoy Alps; Western Alps
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119636
作者单位	UZH, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; VAW, ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland; Fondazione Montagna Sicura, Aosta Valley, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Faillettaz J.,Funk M.,Vagliasindi M.. Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier[J],2016,10(3).
APA	Faillettaz J.,Funk M.,&Vagliasindi M..(2016).Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier.Cryosphere,10(3).
MLA	Faillettaz J.,et al."Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier".Cryosphere 10.3(2016).