气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes

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DOI	10.5194/tc-11-877-2017
	Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes
	Azócar G.F.; Brenning A.; Bodin X.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	19940416
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	Mountain permafrost and rock glaciers in the dry Andes are of growing interest due to the increase in mining industry and infrastructure development in this remote area. Empirical models of mountain permafrost distribution based on rock glacier activity status and temperature data have been established as a tool for regional-scale assessments of its distribution; this kind of model approach has never been applied for a large portion of the Andes. In the present study, this methodology is applied to map permafrost favourability throughout the semi-arid Andes of central Chile (29-32°S), excluding areas of exposed bedrock. After spatially modelling of the mean annual air temperature distribution from scarce temperature records (116 station years) using a linear mixed-effects model, a generalized additive model was built to model the activity status of 3524 rock glaciers. A permafrost favourability index (PFI) was obtained by adjusting model predictions for conceptual differences between permafrost and rock glacier distribution. The results indicate that the model has an acceptable performance (median AUROC: 0.76). Conditions highly favourable to permafrost presence (PFI ≥ 0.75) are predicted for 1051km2 of mountain terrain, or 2.7% of the total area of the watersheds studied. Favourable conditions are expected to occur in 2636km2, or 6.8% of the area. Substantial portions of the Elqui and Huasco watersheds are considered to be favourable for permafrost presence (11.8% each), while in the Limarí and Choapa watersheds permafrost is expected to be mostly limited to specific sub-watersheds. In the future, local ground-truth observations will be required to confirm permafrost presence in favourable areas and to monitor permafrost evolution under the influence of climate change. © 2017 Author(s).
学科领域	air temperature; bedrock; climate change; mountain region; permafrost; rock glacier; semiarid region; spatial distribution; watershed; Andes; Atacama; Chile; Chile; Huasco
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; bedrock; climate change; mountain region; permafrost; rock glacier; semiarid region; spatial distribution; watershed; Andes; Atacama; Chile; Chile; Huasco
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119417
作者单位	Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of WaterlooON, Canada; Department of Geography, Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany; Laboratoire EDYTEM, Université de Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Azócar G.F.,Brenning A.,Bodin X.. Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes[J],2017,11(2).
APA	Azócar G.F.,Brenning A.,&Bodin X..(2017).Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes.Cryosphere,11(2).
MLA	Azócar G.F.,et al."Permafrost distribution modelling in the semi-arid Chilean Andes".Cryosphere 11.2(2017).