气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-11-1173-2017
	A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling
	Lafaysse M.; Cluzet B.; Dumont M.; Lejeune Y.; Vionnet V.; Morin S.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	19940416
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Physically based multilayer snowpack models suffer from various modelling errors. To represent these errors, we built the new multiphysical ensemble system ESCROC (Ensemble System Crocus) by implementing new representations of different physical processes in the deterministic coupled multilayer ground/snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA/Crocus. This ensemble was driven and evaluated at Col de Porte (1325 m a.s.l., French alps) over 18 years with a high-quality meteorological and snow data set. A total number of 7776 simulations were evaluated separately, accounting for the uncertainties of evaluation data. The ability of the ensemble to capture the uncertainty associated to modelling errors is assessed for snow depth, snow water equivalent, bulk density, albedo and surface temperature. Different sub-ensembles of the ESCROC system were studied with probabilistic tools to compare their performance. Results show that optimal members of the ESCROC system are able to explain more than half of the total simulation errors. Integrating members with biases exceeding the range corresponding to observational uncertainty is necessary to obtain an optimal dispersion, but this issue can also be a consequence of the fact that meteorological forcing uncertainties were not accounted for. The ESCROC system promises the integration of numerical snow-modelling errors in ensemble forecasting and ensemble assimilation systems in support of avalanche hazard forecasting and other snowpack-modelling applications. © 2017 Author(s).
学科领域	albedo; bulk density; data set; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; numerical model; performance assessment; probability; snowpack; surface temperature; Crocus
语种	英语
scopus关键词	albedo; bulk density; data set; ensemble forecasting; error analysis; numerical model; performance assessment; probability; snowpack; surface temperature; Crocus
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119397
作者单位	Météo-France, CNRS, CNRM UMR3589, Centre d'Études de la Neige (CEN), Grenoble, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lafaysse M.,Cluzet B.,Dumont M.,et al. A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling[J],2017,11(3).
APA	Lafaysse M.,Cluzet B.,Dumont M.,Lejeune Y.,Vionnet V.,&Morin S..(2017).A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling.Cryosphere,11(3).
MLA	Lafaysse M.,et al."A multiphysical ensemble system of numerical snow modelling".Cryosphere 11.3(2017).