气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-12-1091-2018
	Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model
	Leeson A.A.; Eastoe E.; Fettweis X.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributed 1.7-6.12mm to global sea level between 1993 and 2010 and is expected to contribute 20-110mm to future sea level rise by 2100. These estimates were produced by regional climate models (RCMs) which are known to be robust at the ice sheet scale but occasionally miss regional-A nd local-scale climate variability (e.g. Leeson et al., 2017; Medley et al., 2013). To date, the fidelity of these models in the context of short-period variability in time (i.e. intra-seasonal) has not been fully assessed, for example their ability to simulate extreme temperature events. We use an event identification algorithm commonly used in extreme value analysis, together with observations from the Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net), to assess the ability of the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) RCM to reproduce observed extreme positive-temperature events at 14 sites around Greenland.We find that MAR is able to accurately simulate the frequency and duration of these events but underestimates their magnitude by more than half a degree Celsius/kelvin, although this bias is much smaller than that exhibited by coarse-scale Era-Interim reanalysis data. As a result, melt energy in MAR output is underestimated by between 16 and 41% depending on global forcing applied. Further work is needed to precisely determine the drivers of extreme temperature events, and why the model underperforms in this area, but our findings suggest that biases are passed into MAR from boundary forcing data. This is important because these forcings are common between RCMs and their range of predictions of past and future ice sheet melting. We propose that examining extreme events should become a routine part of global and regional climate model evaluation and that addressing shortcomings in this area should be a priority for model development. © 2018 Author(s).
语种	英语
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119191
作者单位	Lancaster Environment Centre, Data Science Institute, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA14YW, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA14YW, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Liege, Liège, 4000, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leeson A.A.,Eastoe E.,Fettweis X.. Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model[J],2018,12(3).
APA	Leeson A.A.,Eastoe E.,&Fettweis X..(2018).Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model.Cryosphere,12(3).
MLA	Leeson A.A.,et al."Extreme temperature events on Greenland in observations and the MAR regional climate model".Cryosphere 12.3(2018).