气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

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DOI	10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018
	Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
	Harrison S.; Kargel J.S.; Huggel C.; Reynolds J.; Shugar D.H.; Betts R.A.; Emmer A.; Glasser N.; Haritashya U.K.; Klimeš J.; Reinhardt L.; Schaub Y.; Wiltshire A.; Regmi D.; Vilímek V.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:4
英文摘要	Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. © Author(s) 2018.
学科领域	anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate forcing; flood; glacial lake; global climate; Little Ice Age; moraine; outburst; spatiotemporal analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate forcing; flood; glacial lake; global climate; Little Ice Age; moraine; outburst; spatiotemporal analysis
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119185
作者单位	College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom; Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ 85719, United States; Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, 8057, Switzerland; Reynolds International Ltd, Broncoed House, Broncoed Business Park, Wrexham Road, Mold, Flintshire, United Kingdom; Water, Sediment, Hazards, and Earth-surface Dynamics Laboratory, University of Washington, Tacoma, WA 98402, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Albertov 6, Prague, 128 43, Czech Republic; Centre for Glaciology, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, SY23 3DB, United Kingdom; Department of Geology, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH 45469-2364, United States; Department of Human Dimensions of Global Change, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences,...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harrison S.,Kargel J.S.,Huggel C.,et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods[J],2018,12(4).
APA	Harrison S..,Kargel J.S..,Huggel C..,Reynolds J..,Shugar D.H..,...&Vilímek V..(2018).Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods.Cryosphere,12(4).
MLA	Harrison S.,et al."Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods".Cryosphere 12.4(2018).