气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
	Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system
	Nakanowatari T.; Inoue J.; Sato K.; Bertino L.; Xie J.; Matsueda M.; Yamagami A.; Sugimura T.; Yabuki H.; Otsuka N.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	19940416
卷号	12 期号:6
英文摘要	Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June-July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014-2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT (∼ 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR. © Author(s) 2018.
学科领域	accuracy assessment; data assimilation; ice rafting; ice retreat; ice thickness; ice-ocean interaction; sea ice; seasonal variation; summer; topaz; Arctic Ocean; East Siberian Sea
语种	英语
scopus关键词	accuracy assessment; data assimilation; ice rafting; ice retreat; ice thickness; ice-ocean interaction; sea ice; seasonal variation; summer; topaz; Arctic Ocean; East Siberian Sea
来源期刊	Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/119128
作者单位	National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3, Midori-cho, Tachikawa-shi, Tokyo, 190-8518, Japan; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlens gate 47, Bergen, 5006, Norway; Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8577, Japan; Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Kita-21 Nishi-11, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 001-0021, Japan; Kitami Institute of Technology, Kitami, 090-8507, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nakanowatari T.,Inoue J.,Sato K.,et al. Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system[J],2018,12(6).
APA	Nakanowatari T..,Inoue J..,Sato K..,Bertino L..,Xie J..,...&Otsuka N..(2018).Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system.Cryosphere,12(6).
MLA	Nakanowatari T.,et al."Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice-ocean data assimilation system".Cryosphere 12.6(2018).