气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the evolution of mountain glaciers: A case study of Sary-tor glacier, inner tien Shan [Модельные исследования эволюции горных ледников на примере ледника сары-тор (внутренний тянь-шань)]

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DOI	10.21782/KZ1560-7496-2019-3(33-51)
	Modeling the evolution of mountain glaciers: A case study of Sary-tor glacier, inner tien Shan [Модельные исследования эволюции горных ледников на примере ледника сары-тор (внутренний тянь-шань)]
	Rybak O.O.; Rybak E.A.; Yaitskaya N.А.; Popovnin V.V.; Lavrentiev I.I.; Satylkanov R.; Zhakeyev B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	15607496
卷号	23 期号:3
英文摘要	In the paper, we consider evolution of Sary-Tor Glacier, Ak-Shiyrak Massif, Inner Tien Shan under changing climatic conditions. We describe in necessary detail structure of the model and set-up of the numerical experiments. For calibration and validation of the model we use results of measurements in snow pits and on ablation stakes in 2014-2016. A series of ten prognostic numerical experiments of 90 model years duration was performed. As a climatic forcing, we used air temperature and precipitation records on the weather station Tien-Shan-Kumtor located in the vicinity of the glacier. In the schematic scenarios, average daily surface air temperature grows with gradients 0-4 °С/100 years. Present-day glacier configuration is in imbalance with the climate of 2014-2016. As a result, its area and volume proceed to decrease until equilibrium is achieved after several tens of model years. Under extreme rates of temperature increase (+4 °С/100 years) Sary-Tor almost diminishes by the end of experiments. Glacial run-off rapidly decreases after initial growth in the first half of the experiments. Mathematical model inevitably contains simplifications of the real natural conditions. Nevertheless, obtained results will be useful in prognostic water balance сalculations. © 2019 Academic Publishing House Geo. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate; Climate change; Mass balance; Mathematical model; Mountain glacier; Numerical experiment; Sary-Tor; Tien-Shan
学科领域	climate change; climate conditions; climate forcing; glacier mass balance; numerical model; runoff; water budget; Tien Shan
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate conditions; climate forcing; glacier mass balance; numerical model; runoff; water budget; Tien Shan
来源期刊	Earth's Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118993
作者单位	Sochi Research Center, RAS, 8a, Theatralnaya str, Sochi, 354000, Russian Federation; Institute of Natural and Technical Systems, Sochi Branch, 99/18, Kurortny ave., Sochi, 354024, Russian Federation; Earth System Sciences, Department of Geography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2, Pleinlaan, Brussels, B-1050, Belgium; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation; Institute of Geography, RAS, 29, Staromonetny per., Moscow, 119017, Russian Federation; Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower, Tien Shan Science Center, NAS KR, 9, Chikayeva str., Issyk-Kul Region, Kyzyl-Suu, 722400, Kyrgyzstan; Institute of Water Problems and Hydropower NAS KR, 533, Frunze str., Bishkek, 720033, Kyrgyzstan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rybak O.O.,Rybak E.A.,Yaitskaya N.А.,et al. Modeling the evolution of mountain glaciers: A case study of Sary-tor glacier, inner tien Shan [Модельные исследования эволюции горных ледников на примере ледника сары-тор (внутренний тянь-шань)][J],2019,23(3).
APA	Rybak O.O..,Rybak E.A..,Yaitskaya N.А..,Popovnin V.V..,Lavrentiev I.I..,...&Zhakeyev B..(2019).Modeling the evolution of mountain glaciers: A case study of Sary-tor glacier, inner tien Shan [Модельные исследования эволюции горных ледников на примере ледника сары-тор (внутренний тянь-шань)].Earth's Cryosphere,23(3).
MLA	Rybak O.O.,et al."Modeling the evolution of mountain glaciers: A case study of Sary-tor glacier, inner tien Shan [Модельные исследования эволюции горных ледников на примере ледника сары-тор (внутренний тянь-шань)]".Earth's Cryosphere 23.3(2019).