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DOI	10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019
	Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ during the 21st century
	Guo X.; Zhao L.; Gladstone R.M.; Sun S.; Moore J.C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	19940416
EISSN	13
起始页码	3139
结束页码	3153
卷号	13 期号:11
英文摘要	The early 21st century retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ into its overdeepened bedrock trough was accompanied by acceleration to unprecedented ice stream speeds. Such dramatic changes suggested the possibility of substantial mass loss over the rest of this century. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model with parameterizations to represent the effects of ice mélange buttressing, crevasse-depth-based calving and submarine melting to adequately reproduce its recent evolution. We are the first study on Jakobshavn Isbræ that solves for three-dimensional ice flow coupled with representations of hydro-fracturing-induced calving and mélange buttressing. Additionally, the model can accurately replicate interannual variations in grounding line and terminus position, including seasonal fluctuations that emerged after arriving at the overdeepened basin and the disappearance of its floating ice shelf. Our simulated ice viscosity variability due to shear margin evolution is particularly important in reproducing the large observed interannual changes in terminus velocity. We use this model to project Jakobshavn's evolution over this century, forced by ocean temperatures from seven Earth system models and surface runoff derived from RACMO, all under the IPCC RCP4.5 climate scenario. In our simulations, Jakobshavn's grounding line continues to retreat ĝ1/418.5 km by the end of this century, leading to a total mass loss of ĝ1/42068 Gt (5.7 mm sea level rise equivalent). Despite the relative success of the model in simulating the recent behavior of the glacier, the model does not simulate winter calving events that have become relatively more important. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
学科领域	glacier; grounding line; ice flow; ice retreat; ice sheet; ice stream; runoff; sea level change; twenty first century; Arctic; Greenland; Jakobshavn Glacier
语种	英语
scopus关键词	glacier; grounding line; ice flow; ice retreat; ice sheet; ice stream; runoff; sea level change; twenty first century; Arctic; Greenland; Jakobshavn Glacier
来源期刊	The Cryosphere
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118803
作者单位	College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, P.O. Box 122, Rovaniemi, 96101, Finland; Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, 519000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo X.,Zhao L.,Gladstone R.M.,et al. Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ during the 21st century[J],2019,13(11).
APA	Guo X.,Zhao L.,Gladstone R.M.,Sun S.,&Moore J.C..(2019).Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ during the 21st century.The Cryosphere,13(11).
MLA	Guo X.,et al."Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ during the 21st century".The Cryosphere 13.11(2019).