气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/ele.12410
	Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change
	Ehrlén J.; Morris W.F.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	18 期号:3
英文摘要	Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes. © 2015 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.
英文关键词	Abundance; Biotic interactions; Climate change; Demography; Density dependence; Environmental drivers; Geographical distribution; Population model; Species distribution model
学科领域	abundance; biotic factor; demography; density dependence; environmental change; environmental effect; geographical distribution; growth rate; prediction; animal; animal dispersal; biological model; climate change; ecosystem; environment; population density; population dynamics; Animal Distribution; Animals; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Environment; Models, Biological; Population Density; Population Dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	abundance; biotic factor; demography; density dependence; environmental change; environmental effect; geographical distribution; growth rate; prediction; animal; animal dispersal; biological model; climate change; ecosystem; environment; population density; population dynamics; Animal Distribution; Animals; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Environment; Models, Biological; Population Density; Population Dynamics
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118734
作者单位	Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ehrlén J.,Morris W.F.. Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change[J],2015,18(3).
APA	Ehrlén J.,&Morris W.F..(2015).Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change.Ecology Letters,18(3).
MLA	Ehrlén J.,et al."Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change".Ecology Letters 18.3(2015).