气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales

CCPortal

DOI	10.1111/ele.12732
	Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales
	Pepin K.M.; Kay S.L.; Golas B.D.; Shriner S.S.; Gilbert A.T.; Miller R.S.; Graham A.L.; Riley S.; Cross P.C.; Samuel M.D.; Hooten M.B.; Hoeting J.A.; Lloyd-Smith J.O.; Webb C.T.; Buhnerkempe M.G.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	20 期号:3
英文摘要	Our ability to infer unobservable disease-dynamic processes such as force of infection (infection hazard for susceptible hosts) has transformed our understanding of disease transmission mechanisms and capacity to predict disease dynamics. Conventional methods for inferring FOI estimate a time-averaged value and are based on population-level processes. Because many pathogens exhibit epidemic cycling and FOI is the result of processes acting across the scales of individuals and populations, a flexible framework that extends to epidemic dynamics and links within-host processes to FOI is needed. Specifically, within-host antibody kinetics in wildlife hosts can be short-lived and produce patterns that are repeatable across individuals, suggesting individual-level antibody concentrations could be used to infer time since infection and hence FOI. Using simulations and case studies (influenza A in lesser snow geese and Yersinia pestis in coyotes), we argue that with careful experimental and surveillance design, the population-level FOI signal can be recovered from individual-level antibody kinetics, despite substantial individual-level variation. In addition to improving inference, the cross-scale quantitative antibody approach we describe can reveal insights into drivers of individual-based variation in disease response, and the role of poorly understood processes such as secondary infections, in population-level dynamics of disease. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Antibody; antibody kinetics; disease hazard; force of infection; incidence; individual-level variation; influenza; serosurveillance; transmission; within-host
学科领域	antibody; bacterial disease; bacterium; disease incidence; disease transmission; epidemiology; hazard assessment; host-parasite interaction; immune system; individual variation; infectious disease; influenza; population dynamics; Canis latrans; Chen; Yersinia pestis; virus antibody; age; animal; computer simulation; coyote; cross-sectional study; duck; epidemiology; goose; Influenza A virus; Influenza in Birds; longitudinal study; microbiology; Northwest Territories; physiology; plague; Poultry Diseases; prevalence; procedures; risk assessment; seroepidemiology; veterinary; virology; Yersinia pestis; Age Factors; Animals; Antibodies, Viral; Computer Simulation; Coyotes; Cross-Sectional Studies; Ducks; Epidemiologic Methods; Geese; Influenza A virus; Influenza in Birds; Longitudinal Studies; Northwest Territories; Plague; Poultry Diseases; Prevalence; Risk Assessment; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Yersinia pestis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	antibody; bacterial disease; bacterium; disease incidence; disease transmission; epidemiology; hazard assessment; host-parasite interaction; immune system; individual variation; infectious disease; influenza; population dynamics; Canis latrans; Chen; Yersinia pestis; virus antibody; age; animal; computer simulation; coyote; cross-sectional study; duck; epidemiology; goose; Influenza A virus; Influenza in Birds; longitudinal study; microbiology; Northwest Territories; physiology; plague; Poultry Diseases; prevalence; procedures; risk assessment; seroepidemiology; veterinary; virology; Yersinia pestis; Age Factors; Animals; Antibodies, Viral; Computer Simulation; Coyotes; Cross-Sectional Studies; Ducks; Epidemiologic Methods; Geese; Influenza A virus; Influenza in Birds; Longitudinal Studies; Northwest Territories; Plague; Poultry Diseases; Prevalence; Risk Assessment; Seroepidemiologic Studies; Yersinia pestis
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118423
作者单位	National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, 4101 Laporte Ave, Fort Collins, CO 80521, United States; Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Veterinary Services, 2155 Center Drive, Building B, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, 2327 University Way, Bozeman, MT 59715, United States; U. S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wisconsin, 1630 Linden Drove, Madison, WI 53706, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, 1484 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States; Departments ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pepin K.M.,Kay S.L.,Golas B.D.,et al. Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales[J],2017,20(3).
APA	Pepin K.M..,Kay S.L..,Golas B.D..,Shriner S.S..,Gilbert A.T..,...&Buhnerkempe M.G..(2017).Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales.Ecology Letters,20(3).
MLA	Pepin K.M.,et al."Inferring infection hazard in wildlife populations by linking data across individual and population scales".Ecology Letters 20.3(2017).