气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated

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DOI	10.1111/ele.12834
	Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated
	Lee A.M.; Sæther B.-E.; Markussen S.S.; Engen S.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	1461-023X
EISSN	1461-0248
卷号	20 期号:11
英文摘要	In nature, individual reproductive success is seldom independent from year to year, due to factors such as reproductive costs and individual heterogeneity. However, population projection models that incorporate temporal autocorrelations in individual reproduction can be difficult to parameterise, particularly when data are sparse. We therefore examine whether such models are necessary to avoid biased estimates of stochastic population growth and extinction risk, by comparing output from a matrix population model that incorporates reproductive autocorrelations to output from a standard age-structured matrix model that does not. We use a range of parameterisations, including a case study using moose data, treating probabilities of switching reproductive class as either fixed or fluctuating. Expected time to extinction from the two models is found to differ by only small amounts (under 10%) for most parameterisations, indicating that explicitly accounting for individual reproductive autocorrelations is in most cases not necessary to avoid bias in extinction estimates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS
英文关键词	Age structure; demographic stochasticity; dynamic heterogeneity; environmental stochasticity; extinction; life history; matrix model; moose; population growth; reproductive autocorrelation
学科领域	animal; biological model; deer; female; Markov chain; physiology; population dynamics; reproduction; species extinction; Animals; Deer; Extinction, Biological; Female; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Reproduction; Stochastic Processes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	animal; biological model; deer; female; Markov chain; physiology; population dynamics; reproduction; species extinction; Animals; Deer; Extinction, Biological; Female; Models, Biological; Population Dynamics; Reproduction; Stochastic Processes
来源期刊	Ecology Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/118314
作者单位	Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee A.M.,Sæther B.-E.,Markussen S.S.,et al. Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated[J],2017,20(11).
APA	Lee A.M.,Sæther B.-E.,Markussen S.S.,&Engen S..(2017).Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated.Ecology Letters,20(11).
MLA	Lee A.M.,et al."Modelling time to population extinction when individual reproduction is autocorrelated".Ecology Letters 20.11(2017).