气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.03.008
	A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe
	Acosta L.; Klein R.J.T.; Reidsma P.; Metzger M.J.; Rounsevell M.D.A.; Leemans R.; Schröter D.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:5
英文摘要	Traditional impact models combine exposure in the form of scenarios and sensitivity in the form of parameters, providing potential impacts of global change as model outputs. However, adaptive capacity is rarely addressed in these models. This paper presents the first spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity, which can be combined with impact models to support quantitative vulnerability assessment. The adaptive capacity model is based on twelve socio-economic indicators, each of which is projected into the future using four global environmental change scenarios, and then aggregated into an adaptive capacity index in a stepwise approach using fuzzy set theory. The adaptive capacity model provides insight into broad patterns of adaptive capacity across Europe, the relative importance of the various determinants of adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity changes over time under different social and economic assumptions. As such it provides a context for the implementation of specific adaptation measures. This could improve integrated assessment models and could be extended to other regions. However, there is a clear need for a better theoretical understanding of the adaptive capacity concept, and its relationship to the actual implementation of adaptation measures. This requires more empirical research and coordinated meta-analyses across regions and economic sectors, and the development of bottom-up modelling techniques that can incorporate human decision making. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Adaptation; Adaptive capacity; Fuzzy logic analysis; Scenario development
学科领域	capacity building; decision making; environmental change; fuzzy mathematics; global change; vulnerability; Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	capacity building; decision making; environmental change; fuzzy mathematics; global change; vulnerability; Europe
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117908
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; School of Environmental Science and Management (SESAM), University of the Philippines, Los Baños, 4031 Laguna, Philippines; Stockholm Environment Institute, Kräftriket 2B, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research and Department of Thematic Studies, Linköping University, Sweden; Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, Netherlands; Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability, School of Geosciences, The University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Netherlands; Risk, Policy and Vulnerability, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Acosta L.,Klein R.J.T.,Reidsma P.,et al. A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe[J],2013,23(5).
APA	Acosta L..,Klein R.J.T..,Reidsma P..,Metzger M.J..,Rounsevell M.D.A..,...&Schröter D..(2013).A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe.Global Environmental Change,23(5).
MLA	Acosta L.,et al."A spatially explicit scenario-driven model of adaptive capacity to global change in Europe".Global Environmental Change 23.5(2013).