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DOI | 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006 |
Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation | |
Rojas R.; Feyen L.; Watkiss P. | |
发表日期 | 2013 |
ISSN | 0959-3780 |
卷号 | 23期号:6 |
英文摘要 | This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5. billion/year are projected to reach €98. billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53. billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. |
英文关键词 | Avoided damages; Climate change; EU Flood Directive; Flood damage assessment; Flood mitigation; Flood risk |
学科领域 | adaptive management; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; European Union; flood control; flooding; hazard assessment; river; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Europe |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | adaptive management; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; European Union; flood control; flooding; hazard assessment; river; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Europe |
来源期刊 | Global Environmental Change
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文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117857 |
作者单位 | Climate Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, TP261, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy; Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rojas R.,Feyen L.,Watkiss P.. Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation[J],2013,23(6). |
APA | Rojas R.,Feyen L.,&Watkiss P..(2013).Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation.Global Environmental Change,23(6). |
MLA | Rojas R.,et al."Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation".Global Environmental Change 23.6(2013). |
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