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DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.006
Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation
Rojas R.; Feyen L.; Watkiss P.
发表日期2013
ISSN0959-3780
卷号23期号:6
英文摘要This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5. billion/year are projected to reach €98. billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53. billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词Avoided damages; Climate change; EU Flood Directive; Flood damage assessment; Flood mitigation; Flood risk
学科领域adaptive management; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; European Union; flood control; flooding; hazard assessment; river; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Europe
语种英语
scopus关键词adaptive management; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; European Union; flood control; flooding; hazard assessment; river; socioeconomic status; vulnerability; Europe
来源期刊Global Environmental Change
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117857
作者单位Climate Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Via E. Fermi 2749, TP261, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy; Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
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Rojas R.,Feyen L.,Watkiss P.. Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation[J],2013,23(6).
APA Rojas R.,Feyen L.,&Watkiss P..(2013).Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation.Global Environmental Change,23(6).
MLA Rojas R.,et al."Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation".Global Environmental Change 23.6(2013).
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