气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.09.005
	Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss
	Haer T.; Kalnay E.; Kearney M.; Moll H.
发表日期	2013
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	23 期号:6
英文摘要	Global sea-level rise poses a significant threat not only for coastal communities as development continues but also for national economies. This paper presents estimates of how future changes in relative sea-level rise puts coastal populations at risk, as well as affect overall GDP in the conterminous United States. We use four different sea-level rise scenarios for 2010-2100: a low-end scenario (Extended Linear Trend) a second low-end scenario based on a strong mitigative global warming pathway (Global Warming Coupling 2.6), a high-end scenario based on rising radiative forcing (Global Warming Coupling 8.5) and a plausible very high-end scenario, including accelerated ice cap melting (Global Warming Coupling 8.5+). Relative sea-level rise trends for each US state are employed to obtain more reasonable rates for these areas, as long-term rates vary considerably between the US Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts because of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, local subsidence and sediment compaction, and other vertical land movement. Using these trends for the four scenarios reveals that the relative sea levels predicted by century's end could range - averaged over all states - from 0.2 to 2.0m above present levels. The estimates for the amount of land inundated vary from 26,000 to 76,000km2. Upwards of 1.8 to 7.4 million people could be at risk, and GDP could potentially decline by USD 70-289 billion. Unfortunately, there are many uncertainties associated with the impact estimates due to the limitations of the input data, especially the input elevation data. Taking this into account, even the most conservative scenario shows a significant impact for the US, emphasizing the importance of adaptation and mitigation. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	GDP; Land inundation; Population at risk; Sea-level rise
学科领域	community care; data set; global warming; Gross Domestic Product; national economy; sea level change; Atlantic Coast [North America]; Atlantic Coast [United States]; Pacific Coast [North America]; Pacific Coast [United States]; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	community care; data set; global warming; Gross Domestic Product; national economy; sea level change; Atlantic Coast [North America]; Atlantic Coast [United States]; Pacific Coast [North America]; Pacific Coast [United States]; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117847
作者单位	Center for Energy and Environmental Studies IVEM, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States; University of Maryland, Department of Environmental Science and Technology, College Park, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haer T.,Kalnay E.,Kearney M.,et al. Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss[J],2013,23(6).
APA	Haer T.,Kalnay E.,Kearney M.,&Moll H..(2013).Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss.Global Environmental Change,23(6).
MLA	Haer T.,et al."Relative sea-level rise and the conterminous United States: Consequences of potential land inundation in terms of population at risk and GDP loss".Global Environmental Change 23.6(2013).