气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.018
	Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs
	Ban S.S.; Pressey R.L.; Graham N.A.J.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	27 期号:1
英文摘要	Bayesian belief networks are finding increasing application in adaptive ecosystem management where data are limited and uncertainty is high. The combined effect of multiple stressors is one area where considerable uncertainty exists. Our study area, the Great Barrier Reef is simultaneously data-rich - concerning the physical and biological environment - and data-poor - concerning the effects of interacting stressors. We used a formal expert-elicitation process to obtain estimates of outcomes associated with a variety of scenarios that combined stressors both within and outside the control of local managers. There was much stronger consensus about certain stressor effects - such as between temperature anomalies and bleaching - than others, such as the relationship between water quality and coral cover. In general, the expert outlook for the Great Barrier Reef is pessimistic, with the potential for climate change effects potentially to overshadow the effects of local management actions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Bayesian belief network; Climate change; Conservation planning; Coral reef; Expert elicitation; Risk assessment
学科领域	adaptive management; Bayesian analysis; climate change; conservation planning; coral reef; expert system; risk assessment; water quality; Australia; Coral Sea; Great Barrier Reef; Pacific Ocean; Queensland
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; Bayesian analysis; climate change; conservation planning; coral reef; expert system; risk assessment; water quality; Australia; Coral Sea; Great Barrier Reef; Pacific Ocean; Queensland
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117756
作者单位	ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ban S.S.,Pressey R.L.,Graham N.A.J.. Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs[J],2014,27(1).
APA	Ban S.S.,Pressey R.L.,&Graham N.A.J..(2014).Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs.Global Environmental Change,27(1).
MLA	Ban S.S.,et al."Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: A Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs".Global Environmental Change 27.1(2014).