气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the climate summit in copenhagen

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.007
	Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the climate summit in copenhagen
	Betz R.; Cludius J.; Twomey P.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	27 期号:1
英文摘要	This paper presents results from a field experiment of running a prediction market for international climate negotiations. We draw upon our experience of running the Copenhagen Prediction Market during the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December 2009. The Copenhagen Prediction Market consisted of 17 different markets, where participants could trade in shares predicting, amongst others, reduction targets for various countries, the long-term stabilisation goal or the level of funding from developed countries to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation actions. We show that this novel application of prediction markets to climate negotiations is distinct from more traditional applications and, in many ways, more challenging. We discuss our experiences in designing and setting up the market and interpreting its results. In particular, it is crucial to be able to define the outcome of a climate conference in the face of often ambiguous final communications in order to make the prediction market robust and to find benchmarks to compare prediction market performance against. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Copenhagen climate summit; Information markets; Prediction markets; United nations framwork convention on climate change
学科领域	climate prediction; developing world; globalization; mitigation; participatory approach; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Copenhagen [(CTY) Hovedstaden]; Denmark; Hovedstaden
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; developing world; globalization; mitigation; participatory approach; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; Copenhagen [(CTY) Hovedstaden]; Denmark; Hovedstaden
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117755
作者单位	Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets, School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, NSW, Australia; Zurich University of Applied Sciences, School of Management and Law, Winterthur, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Betz R.,Cludius J.,Twomey P.. Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the climate summit in copenhagen[J],2014,27(1).
APA	Betz R.,Cludius J.,&Twomey P..(2014).Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the climate summit in copenhagen.Global Environmental Change,27(1).
MLA	Betz R.,et al."Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the climate summit in copenhagen".Global Environmental Change 27.1(2014).