气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010
	International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls
	Liu J.; Hertel T.W.; Taheripour F.; Zhu T.; Ringler C.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	29
英文摘要	There is increasing interest in the water-food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. In this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30-60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. The global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies. © 2014 The Authors.
英文关键词	CGE modeling; International agricultural trade; Irrigation availability; Water-food nexus
学科领域	agricultural extension; agricultural trade; crop production; economic analysis; future prospect; international trade; irrigation system; model validation; trade-environment relations; water availability; China; Hai Basin; India; Indus Basin; Luni Basin; Mediterranean Sea; Mediterranean Sea (East); Rajasthan
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural extension; agricultural trade; crop production; economic analysis; future prospect; international trade; irrigation system; model validation; trade-environment relations; water availability; China; Hai Basin; India; Indus Basin; Luni Basin; Mediterranean Sea; Mediterranean Sea (East); Rajasthan
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117749
作者单位	Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 W State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2056, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu J.,Hertel T.W.,Taheripour F.,et al. International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls[J],2014,29.
APA	Liu J.,Hertel T.W.,Taheripour F.,Zhu T.,&Ringler C..(2014).International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls.Global Environmental Change,29.
MLA	Liu J.,et al."International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls".Global Environmental Change 29(2014).