气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.009
	Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK
	Thomas M.; Pidgeon N.; Whitmarsh L.; Ballinger R.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	33
英文摘要	Global average sea levels are expected to rise by up to a metre by the end of the century. This long-term rise will combine with shorter-term changes in sea level (e.g. high tides, storm surges) to increase risks of flooding and erosion in vulnerable coastal areas. As communities become increasingly exposed to these risks, understanding their beliefs and responses becomes more important. While studies have explored public responses to climate change, less research has focused on perceptions of the specific risks associated with sea-level change. This paper presents the results of a mental models study that addressed this knowledge gap by exploring expert and public perceptions of sea-level change on the Severn Estuary, a threatened coastal environment in the southwest of the United Kingdom. A model was developed from the literature and expert interviews (. N=. 11), and compared with public perceptions elicited via interviews (. N=. 20) and a quantitative survey (. N=. 359). Whilst we find a high degree of consistency between expert and public understandings, there are important differences that have implications for how sea level risks are interpreted and for what are perceived as appropriate mitigation and adaptation practices. We also find a number of potential barriers to engaging with the issue: individuals express low concern about sea-level change in relation to other matters; they feel detached from the issue, seeing it as something that will happen in future to other people; and many perceive that neither the causes of nor responses to sea-level change are their responsibility. We point to areas upon which future risk communications should therefore concentrate. © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
英文关键词	Mental models; Public perceptions; Public understanding; Sea-level change; Sea-level rise
学科领域	climate change; coastal erosion; coastal zone; flooding; global change; long-term change; perception; sea level change; adaptive management; environmental risk; erosion rate; expert system; future prospect; model test; public attitude; vulnerability; Severn Estuary; United Kingdom
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; coastal erosion; coastal zone; flooding; global change; long-term change; perception; sea level change; adaptive management; environmental risk; erosion rate; expert system; future prospect; model test; public attitude; vulnerability; Severn Estuary; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117504
作者单位	Understanding Risk Group, Tyndall Centre and Climate Change Consortium of Wales, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Wales, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Cardiff University, Wales, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas M.,Pidgeon N.,Whitmarsh L.,et al. Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK[J],2015,33.
APA	Thomas M.,Pidgeon N.,Whitmarsh L.,&Ballinger R..(2015).Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK.Global Environmental Change,33.
MLA	Thomas M.,et al."Mental models of sea-level change: A mixed methods analysis on the Severn Estuary, UK".Global Environmental Change 33(2015).