气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.004
	Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios
	Alfieri L.; Feyen L.; Dottori F.; Bianchi A.
发表日期	2015
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	35
英文摘要	At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called "high end" climate scenarios. This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20-40 B€ in 2050 and 30-100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth. © 2015 Z.
英文关键词	EURO-CORDEX climate projections; Flood risk; Potential flood damage; RCP 8.5; Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)
学科领域	climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; flood damage; future prospect; global warming; hazard assessment; risk assessment; socioeconomic impact; streamflow; threshold; Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; flood damage; future prospect; global warming; hazard assessment; risk assessment; socioeconomic impact; streamflow; threshold; Europe
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117455
作者单位	European Commission-Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alfieri L.,Feyen L.,Dottori F.,et al. Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios[J],2015,35.
APA	Alfieri L.,Feyen L.,Dottori F.,&Bianchi A..(2015).Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios.Global Environmental Change,35.
MLA	Alfieri L.,et al."Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios".Global Environmental Change 35(2015).