气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.007
	Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change
	van Vliet M.T.H.; van Beek L.P.H.; Eisner S.; Flörke M.; Wada Y.; Bierkens M.F.P.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	40
英文摘要	Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Climate change; Cooling water; Global hydrological models; Hydropower; Water resources; Water temperature
学科领域	climate change; cooling water; discharge; global change; hydroelectric power; hydrological modeling; parameterization; socioeconomic conditions; streamflow; thermal power; water resource; water temperature; Africa; Australia; Europe; Far East; South America; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; cooling water; discharge; global change; hydroelectric power; hydrological modeling; parameterization; socioeconomic conditions; streamflow; thermal power; water resource; water temperature; Africa; Australia; Europe; Far East; South America; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117329
作者单位	Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A‐2361, Austria; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, 34109, Germany; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, NY, NY 10025, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, NY, NY 10025, United States; Soil and Groundwater Systems Unit, Deltares, P.O. Box 80015, Utrecht, 3508 TA, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Vliet M.T.H.,van Beek L.P.H.,Eisner S.,et al. Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change[J],2016,40.
APA	van Vliet M.T.H.,van Beek L.P.H.,Eisner S.,Flörke M.,Wada Y.,&Bierkens M.F.P..(2016).Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change.Global Environmental Change,40.
MLA	van Vliet M.T.H.,et al."Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change".Global Environmental Change 40(2016).