气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.003
	Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies
	Dueri S.; Guillotreau P.; Jiménez-Toribio R.; Oliveros-Ramos R.; Bopp L.; Maury O.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	41
英文摘要	We investigate the interactions between anthropogenic climate change, socioeconomic developments and tuna fishery management strategies. For this purpose, we use the APECOSM-E model to map the effects of climate change and commercial fishing on the distribution of skipjack tuna biomass in the three oceans, combined with a new bioeconomic module representing the rent or profit of skipjack fisheries. For forcing, we use Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the highest emission scenario for greenhouse gas concentrations presented in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and the IPCC Socioeconomic Shared Pathway (SSP) 3, which is characterized by low economic development and a strong increase in the world population. We first investigate the impact of climate change on regional skipjack abundance, catches and profits in three oceans (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) in 2010, 2050 and 2095. We then study the effects of three management strategies (maximum sustainable yield or MSY, maximum economic yield or MEY, and zero rent or ZR) on the future distribution of fishing fleets between oceans and on global economic rent. Our model projections for 2050 and 2095 show an increase in global skipjack biomass compared to 2010 and major changes in its distribution, impacting local and regional fishing efforts. The Pacific Ocean will continue to dominate the skipjack market. In our modeling of management strategies, the currently predominant MSY strategy would have been unprofitable in 2010, due to a decreased catch per unit effort (CPUE). In the future, however, technological developments should increase fishing efficiency and make MSY profitable. In all the scenarios, a MEY strategy is more profitable than MSY but leads to the lowest catches and the highest prices. This raises ethical questions in a world where food security may become a top priority. In the scenarios where MSY generates an economic loss (e.g. 2010), a ZR strategy allows global stocks to be exploited at high but still profitable levels. Conversely, in the scenarios where MSY is profitable, (e.g. 2095) ZR leads to overfishing and smaller global catches. We conclude that the most appropriate management strategy at any time is likely to change as environmental and socioeconomic conditions evolve. The decision to follow one or other strategy is a complex one that must be regularly reviewed and updated. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Bioeconomic model; Climate change; Fishery management; MEY; MSY; Skipjack tuna
学科领域	abundance; anthropogenic effect; biomass; catch per unit effort; climate change; economic development; fishery management; fishing effort; food security; market conditions; numerical model; profitability; technological development; tuna fishery; Atlantic Ocean; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Katsuwonus; Scombridae
语种	英语
scopus关键词	abundance; anthropogenic effect; biomass; catch per unit effort; climate change; economic development; fishery management; fishing effort; food security; market conditions; numerical model; profitability; technological development; tuna fishery; Atlantic Ocean; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Katsuwonus; Scombridae
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117322
作者单位	IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement), UMR 248 MARBEC, Sète, France; Institut d'Economie et de Management de Nantes, LEMNA, University of Nantes, France; MEMPES, University of Huelva, Spain; Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Peru; Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-UVSQ-CNRS, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; ICEMASA, Departement of Ocenography, University of Cape Town, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dueri S.,Guillotreau P.,Jiménez-Toribio R.,et al. Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies[J],2016,41.
APA	Dueri S.,Guillotreau P.,Jiménez-Toribio R.,Oliveros-Ramos R.,Bopp L.,&Maury O..(2016).Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies.Global Environmental Change,41.
MLA	Dueri S.,et al."Food security or economic profitability? Projecting the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on global skipjack tuna fisheries under three management strategies".Global Environmental Change 41(2016).