气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.08.006
	A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy
	Vandyck T.; Keramidas K.; Saveyn B.; Kitous A.; Vrontisi Z.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	41
英文摘要	The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward in the run-up to COP21 by individual member states and a policy that is likely to limit global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with an economy-wide top-down CGE model to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. In addition, we illustrate how the gap between the Paris mitigation pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2 °C can be bridged. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that the Paris pledges lead to relatively small losses in GDP, indicating that global action to cut emissions is consistent with robust economic growth. The results for employment indicate a potential transition of jobs from energy-intensive to low-carbon, service oriented sectors. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Global stock taking; INDC; International climate negotiations; Mitigation policy; Modelling; Paris agreement
学科领域	climate change; economic analysis; emission control; energy planning; environmental economics; environmental policy; global warming; greenhouse gas; international agreement; mitigation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; economic analysis; emission control; energy planning; environmental economics; environmental policy; global warming; greenhouse gas; international agreement; mitigation
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117321
作者单位	European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain; E3MLab, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vandyck T.,Keramidas K.,Saveyn B.,et al. A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy[J],2016,41.
APA	Vandyck T.,Keramidas K.,Saveyn B.,Kitous A.,&Vrontisi Z..(2016).A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy.Global Environmental Change,41.
MLA	Vandyck T.,et al."A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy".Global Environmental Change 41(2016).