气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.007
	Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example
	Huskova I.; Matrosov E.S.; Harou J.J.; Kasprzyk J.R.; Lambert C.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	41
英文摘要	We propose an approach for screening future infrastructure and demand management investments for large water supply systems subject to uncertain future conditions. The approach is demonstrated using the London water supply system. Promising portfolios of interventions (e.g., new supplies, water conservation schemes, etc.) that meet London's estimated water supply demands in 2035 are shown to face significant trade-offs between financial, engineering and environmental measures of performance. Robust portfolios are identified by contrasting the multi-objective results attained for (1) historically observed baseline conditions versus (2) future global change scenarios. An ensemble of global change scenarios is computed using climate change impacted hydrological flows, plausible water demands, environmentally motivated abstraction reductions, and future energy prices. The proposed multi-scenario trade-off analysis screens for robust investments that provide benefits over a wide range of futures, including those with little change. Our results suggest that 60 percent of intervention portfolios identified as Pareto optimal under historical conditions would fail under future scenarios considered relevant by stakeholders. Those that are able to maintain good performance under historical conditions can no longer be considered to perform optimally under future scenarios. The individual investment options differ significantly in their ability to cope with varying conditions. Visualizing the individual infrastructure and demand management interventions implemented in the Pareto optimal portfolios in multi-dimensional space aids the exploration of how the interventions affect the robustness and performance of the system. © 2016 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Decision-Making under uncertainty; Many-objective optimization; Robust investments; Trade-off analysis; Water resources planning
学科领域	climate change; demand-side management; distribution system; future prospect; global change; infrastructure planning; investment; multiobjective programming; optimization; trade-off; water planning; water resource; water supply; England; London [England]; United Kingdom
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; demand-side management; distribution system; future prospect; global change; infrastructure planning; investment; multiobjective programming; optimization; trade-off; water planning; water resource; water supply; England; London [England]; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117308
作者单位	Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom; Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, BoulderCO 80309-0428, United States; Thames Water Utility Limited, Clearwater Court, Vastern Road, ReadingRG1 8DB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huskova I.,Matrosov E.S.,Harou J.J.,et al. Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example[J],2016,41.
APA	Huskova I.,Matrosov E.S.,Harou J.J.,Kasprzyk J.R.,&Lambert C..(2016).Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example.Global Environmental Change,41.
MLA	Huskova I.,et al."Screening robust water infrastructure investments and their trade-offs under global change: A London example".Global Environmental Change 41(2016).