气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005
	Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011
	Thiede B.; Gray C.; Mueller V.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	41
英文摘要	We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15–40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Climate change; Human migration; South America; Urbanization; Vulnerability
学科领域	air temperature; climate conditions; climate variation; complexity; heterogeneity; observational method; population migration; rainfall; rural-urban migration; socioeconomic indicator; urbanization; vulnerability; South America
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate conditions; climate variation; complexity; heterogeneity; observational method; population migration; rainfall; rural-urban migration; socioeconomic indicator; urbanization; vulnerability; South America
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117307
作者单位	Pennsylvania State University, United States; University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thiede B.,Gray C.,Mueller V.. Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011[J],2016,41.
APA	Thiede B.,Gray C.,&Mueller V..(2016).Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011.Global Environmental Change,41.
MLA	Thiede B.,et al."Climate variability and inter-provincial migration in South America, 1970–2011".Global Environmental Change 41(2016).