气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004
	Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
	Dellink R.; Chateau J.; Lanzi E.; Magné B.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-specific drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufficient care and not be treated as predictions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Baselines; Climate change; Convergence; Economic growth
学科领域	baseline survey; climate change; convergence; economic growth; global change; Gross Domestic Product; long-term change; methodology; socioeconomic status
语种	英语
scopus关键词	baseline survey; climate change; convergence; economic growth; global change; Gross Domestic Product; long-term change; methodology; socioeconomic status
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117301
作者单位	OECD Environment Directorate, 2 rue André-Pascal, Paris, 75775, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dellink R.,Chateau J.,Lanzi E.,et al. Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J],2017,42.
APA	Dellink R.,Chateau J.,Lanzi E.,&Magné B..(2017).Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Dellink R.,et al."Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).