气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015
	Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century
	Kriegler E.; Bauer N.; Popp A.; Humpenöder F.; Leimbach M.; Strefler J.; Baumstark L.; Bodirsky B.L.; Hilaire J.; Klein D.; Mouratiadou I.; Weindl I.; Bertram C.; Dietrich J.-P.; Luderer G.; Pehl M.; Pietzcker R.; Piontek F.; Lotze-Campen H.; Biewald A.; Bonsch M.; Giannousakis A.; Kreidenweis U.; Müller C.; Rolinski S.; Schultes A.; Schwanitz J.; Stevanovic M.; Calvin K.; Emmerling J.; Fujimori S.; Edenhofer O.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	42
英文摘要	This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. © 2016 The Authors
英文关键词	Emission scenario; Energy transformation; Integrated assessment modeling; Land-use change; Shared Socio-economic Pathway; SSP5
学科领域	adaptive management; climate forcing; emission inventory; energy resource; environmental assessment; environmental modeling; environmental policy; fossil fuel; global change; integrated approach; scenario analysis; socioeconomic impact; transformation; twenty first century
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate forcing; emission inventory; energy resource; environmental assessment; environmental modeling; environmental policy; fossil fuel; global change; integrated approach; scenario analysis; socioeconomic impact; transformation; twenty first century
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117293
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics, Berlin, Germany; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, United States; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranen Center on Climate Change, Milan, Italy; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kriegler E.,Bauer N.,Popp A.,et al. Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century[J],2017,42.
APA	Kriegler E..,Bauer N..,Popp A..,Humpenöder F..,Leimbach M..,...&Edenhofer O..(2017).Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century.Global Environmental Change,42.
MLA	Kriegler E.,et al."Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century".Global Environmental Change 42(2017).