气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.002
	Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
	Palazzo A.; Vervoort J.M.; Mason-D'Croz D.; Rutting L.; Havlík P.; Islam S.; Bayala J.; Valin H.; Kadi Kadi H.A.; Thornton P.; Zougmore R.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	45
英文摘要	The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts. © 2016 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Agriculture; Climate change; Representative agricultural pathways; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Stakeholders; West Africa
学科领域	adaptive management; agricultural land; agricultural practice; agricultural production; climate change; climate effect; economic development; exploration; food security; future prospect; global perspective; grassland; model; policy approach; policy development; regional planning; scenario analysis; socioeconomic conditions; stakeholder; West Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; agricultural land; agricultural practice; agricultural production; climate change; climate effect; economic development; exploration; food security; future prospect; global perspective; grassland; model; policy approach; policy development; regional planning; scenario analysis; socioeconomic conditions; stakeholder; West Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117249
作者单位	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management Program, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Science, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Rolighedsvej 21, Frederiksberg C, DK 1958, Denmark; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80.115, Utrecht, 3508TC, Netherlands; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Environment and Production Technology Division, 2033 K Street, Washington, DC, NW 20006-1002, United States; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), West and Central Africa Regional Office-Sahel Node, Bamako, BP E5118, Mali; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger (INRAN), Niamey, BP 429, Niger; International Crops Research Inst...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Palazzo A.,Vervoort J.M.,Mason-D'Croz D.,et al. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context[J],2017,45.
APA	Palazzo A..,Vervoort J.M..,Mason-D'Croz D..,Rutting L..,Havlík P..,...&Zougmore R..(2017).Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.Global Environmental Change,45.
MLA	Palazzo A.,et al."Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context".Global Environmental Change 45(2017).