气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A physically-based model of long-term food demand

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.003
	A physically-based model of long-term food demand
	Bijl D.L.; Bogaart P.W.; Dekker S.C.; Stehfest E.; de Vries B.J.M.; van Vuuren D.P.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	45
英文摘要	Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food demand, the agricultural system, and the interactions with other natural and human systems. Studying such interactions in the long-term future is often done with Integrated Assessment Modelling. In this paper we develop a new food demand model to make projections several decades ahead, having 46 detailed food categories and population segmented by income and urban vs rural. The core of our model is a set of relationships between income and dietary patterns, with differences between regions and income inequalities within a region. Hereby we take a different, more long-term-oriented approach than elasticity-based macro-economic models (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models). The physical and detailed nature of our model allows for fine-grained scenario exploration. We first apply the model to the newly developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and then to additional sustainable development scenarios of food waste reduction and dietary change. We conclude that total demand for crops and grass could increase roughly 35–165% between 2010 and 2100, that this future demand growth can be tempered more effectively by replacing animal products than by reducing food waste, and that income-based consumption inequality persists and is a contributing factor to our estimate that 270 million people could still be undernourished in 2050. © 2017
英文关键词	Dietary change; Food demand; Food demand projections; Food waste; Income elasticity; Income inequality; Integrated assessment models; Rural; Shared socio-economic pathways; Undernourishment; Urban
学科领域	assessment method; dietary overlap; economic analysis; food availability; food waste; hunger; income; integrated approach; socioeconomic impact; sustainable development; water use; Animalia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; dietary overlap; economic analysis; food availability; food waste; hunger; income; integrated approach; socioeconomic impact; sustainable development; water use; Animalia
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117244
作者单位	Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, Utrecht, 3508 TC, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, Den Haag, 2500 GH, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bijl D.L.,Bogaart P.W.,Dekker S.C.,et al. A physically-based model of long-term food demand[J],2017,45.
APA	Bijl D.L.,Bogaart P.W.,Dekker S.C.,Stehfest E.,de Vries B.J.M.,&van Vuuren D.P..(2017).A physically-based model of long-term food demand.Global Environmental Change,45.
MLA	Bijl D.L.,et al."A physically-based model of long-term food demand".Global Environmental Change 45(2017).