气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.08.008
	Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh
	Call M.A.; Gray C.; Yunus M.; Emch M.
发表日期	2017
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	46
英文摘要	Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the ‘environmental refugee’ hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that temporary migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods, while migrations decrease during extended periods of extreme precipitation. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes, and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation in which long-standing household livelihood strategies (both temporary migration and agriculture) are disrupted by environmental variability. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Environment; Livelihoods; Population mobility; Temporary migration
学科领域	climate change; environmental conditions; extreme event; global climate; livelihood; mobility; nature-society relations; population migration; refuge; spatiotemporal analysis; Bangladesh
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; environmental conditions; extreme event; global climate; livelihood; mobility; nature-society relations; population migration; refuge; spatiotemporal analysis; Bangladesh
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117219
作者单位	The National Socio-environmental Synthesis Center, 1 Park Place Suite 300, Annapolis, MD 21401, United States; UNC Department of Geography, 308 Carolina Hall, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, United States; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, GPO Box 128, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh; UNC Department of Geography, 205 Carolina Hall, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Call M.A.,Gray C.,Yunus M.,et al. Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh[J],2017,46.
APA	Call M.A.,Gray C.,Yunus M.,&Emch M..(2017).Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh.Global Environmental Change,46.
MLA	Call M.A.,et al."Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh".Global Environmental Change 46(2017).