气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.008
	Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling
	Bleischwitz R.; Nechifor V.; Winning M.; Huang B.; Geng Y.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	86
结束页码	96
卷号	48
英文摘要	The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of ‘decoupling’ driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests. This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called ‘Apparent Domestic Consumption’ (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy. Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty+ years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods. With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China's future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics. Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. © 2017 The Authors
英文关键词	Anthropogenic stocks; Decoupling; Development; Growth; Intensity of use hypothesis; Materials; Saturation
学科领域	aluminum; anthropogenic effect; cement; copper; demand analysis; economic analysis; economic development; economic growth; environmental change; environmental economics; environmental policy; income; industrial production; industrialization; international trade; material flow analysis; resource use; steel; sustainability; theory; time series; trade-environment relations; Germany; Japan; United Kingdom; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aluminum; anthropogenic effect; cement; copper; demand analysis; economic analysis; economic development; economic growth; environmental change; environmental economics; environmental policy; income; industrial production; industrialization; international trade; material flow analysis; resource use; steel; sustainability; theory; time series; trade-environment relations; Germany; Japan; United Kingdom; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117187
作者单位	University College London, Institute for Sustainable Resources, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom; University of Shanghai for Science and Technology (USST), Department of Environmental Engineering, China; Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Department of Environmental Science, Environment Science Building, 800 Dongchuan Rd, Minhang District, Shanghai, 200240, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bleischwitz R.,Nechifor V.,Winning M.,等. Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling[J],2018,48.
APA	Bleischwitz R.,Nechifor V.,Winning M.,Huang B.,&Geng Y..(2018).Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling.Global Environmental change,48.
MLA	Bleischwitz R.,et al."Extrapolation or saturation – Revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling".Global Environmental change 48(2018).