气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007
	Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe
	Forzieri G.; Bianchi A.; Silva F.B.E.; Marin Herrera M.A.; Leblois A.; Lavalle C.; Aerts J.C.J.H.; Feyen L.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	97
结束页码	107
卷号	48
英文摘要	Extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent owing to global warming. This may put additional stress on critical infrastructures with typically long life spans. However, little is known about the risks of multiple climate extremes on critical infrastructures at regional to continental scales. Here we show how single- and multi-hazard damage to energy, transport, industrial, and social critical infrastructures in Europe are likely to develop until the year 2100 under the influence of climate change. We combine a set of high-resolution climate hazard projections, a detailed representation of physical assets in various sectors and their sensitivity to the hazards, and more than 1100 records of losses from climate extremes in a prognostic modelling framework. We find that damages could triple by the 2020s, multiply six-fold by mid-century, and amount to more than 10 times present damage of €3.4 billion per year by the end of the century due only to climate change. Damage from heatwaves, droughts in southern Europe, and coastal floods shows the most dramatic rise, but the risks of inland flooding, windstorms, and forest fires will also increase in Europe, with varying degrees of change across regions. Economic losses are highest for the industry, transport, and energy sectors. Future losses will not be incurred equally across Europe. Southern and south-eastern European countries will be most affected and, as a result, will probably require higher costs of adaptation. The findings of this study could aid in prioritizing regional investments to address the unequal burden of impacts and differences in adaptation capacities across Europe. © 2017 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate change impact; Critical infrastructures; Loss and damage; Multiple climate hazards
学科领域	adaptive management; analytical framework; climate change; climate effect; climate prediction; damage; drought; extreme event; flood; global warming; hazard management; heat wave; infrastructure; modeling; natural hazard; risk assessment; Europe
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; analytical framework; climate change; climate effect; climate prediction; damage; drought; extreme event; flood; global warming; hazard management; heat wave; infrastructure; modeling; natural hazard; risk assessment; Europe
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117186
作者单位	European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Ispra, I-21027, Italy; Arcadia SIT, Vigevano, I-27029, Italy; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Growth and Innovation, Ispra, I-21027, Italy; Arhs DevelopmentsL-1253, Luxembourg; Laboratoire d'Économie Forestière (LEF), AgroParisTech, INRA, Nancy, 54000, France; Amsterdam Global Change Institute (AGCI), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, HV 1081, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, HV 1081, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Space, Security and Migration, Ispra, I-21027, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Forzieri G.,Bianchi A.,Silva F.B.E.,et al. Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe[J],2018,48.
APA	Forzieri G..,Bianchi A..,Silva F.B.E..,Marin Herrera M.A..,Leblois A..,...&Feyen L..(2018).Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe.Global Environmental change,48.
MLA	Forzieri G.,et al."Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe".Global Environmental change 48(2018).