气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.03.007
	Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways
	Mogollón J.M.; Beusen A.H.W.; van Grinsven H.J.M.; Westhoek H.; Bouwman A.F.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	149
结束页码	163
卷号	50
英文摘要	A spatially explicit, two-pool soil phosphorus (P) model was used to analyze cropland P dynamics and fertilizer demand based on future crop production as projected in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The model was initialized with historical data on P inputs and uptake, which governed the soil P accumulation up to present day. In contrast to existing scenario studies, the model accounts for both soil characteristics relevant to P retention and changing land use. At the global scale, crop uptake and the fraction of the applied P fertilizer that is directly taken up by plant roots govern the P quantities present in the soil. Despite the differences in the storylines among the SSPs, the quantitative implementation results in estimates for crop production and P inputs that are quite similar, which contrasts with the stark divergence in terms of population and incomes. In addition to global fertilizer P inputs in croplands increasing from 14.5 Tg P yr−1 in 2005 to 22–27 Tg P yr−1 in 2050, this study also estimates that 4–12 Tg P yr−1 would be needed in 2050 in global intensively managed grasslands to maintain fertility. Our new model approach can pinpoint the contribution of area expansion and crop yield improvement toward the total production, whereby the latter is shown to contribute 100% to 69%, depending on the scenario. © 2018 The Authors
英文关键词	Crop uptake; Fertilizer; Manure; Phosphorus; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Soil phosphorus pools
学科领域	agricultural land; crop improvement; crop production; crop yield; demand analysis; grassland; land use change; manure; nutrient dynamics; nutrient uptake; phosphorus; socioeconomic conditions; soil nutrient; spatial analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural land; crop improvement; crop production; crop yield; demand analysis; grassland; land use change; manure; nutrient dynamics; nutrient uptake; phosphorus; socioeconomic conditions; soil nutrient; spatial analysis
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117141
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences – Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht, TA 3508, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, The HagueGH 2500, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mogollón J.M.,Beusen A.H.W.,van Grinsven H.J.M.,et al. Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2018,50.
APA	Mogollón J.M.,Beusen A.H.W.,van Grinsven H.J.M.,Westhoek H.,&Bouwman A.F..(2018).Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways.Global Environmental change,50.
MLA	Mogollón J.M.,et al."Future agricultural phosphorus demand according to the shared socioeconomic pathways".Global Environmental change 50(2018).