气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economically robust protection against 21st century sea-level rise

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.05.003
	Economically robust protection against 21st century sea-level rise
	Lincke D.; Hinkel J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	67
结束页码	73
卷号	51
英文摘要	While sea-level rise could flood and displace hundreds of millions of people, a range of studies have shown that adaptation in the form of coastal protection can be very effective and cost-efficient in reducing coastal impacts. All of these studies have, however, investigated adaptation decisions within one given sea-level rise and one given socio-economic scenario, which is at odds with the actual decision problem coastal planers are facing in that they need to decide across scenarios. This study takes first steps at filling this gap by assessing for which parts of the global coastline coastal protection is economically robust across 21st century global mean sea-level rise from 0.3 m to 2.0 m, the five Shared Socio-economic Pathways and discount rates from 0 to 6%. We find that for 92,500 km of the global coastline it is economically robust to invest in protection (i.e. protection is cheaper than not protecting under every scenario considered). While these 92,500 km cover only 13% of the global coastline, they account for 90% of global coastal floodplain population and for 96% of assets in the global coastal floodplain. For 451,000 km of the global coastline (65%) covering 0.2% of coastal floodplain population and 0.2% of coastal floodplain assets globally, it is economically robust not to invest in protection. Our results suggest bifurcating coastal futures. On the one hand, richer, densely populated and urban areas are likely to be protected through higher and higher dikes. On the other hand, poorer rural areas will struggle to maintain safe human settlements and are likely to eventual retreat from the coast, raising difficult policy questions concerning transfer payments, compensation and liability for loss and damage. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Coastal protection; Robust decision analysis; Sea-level rise impacts
学科领域	adaptive management; coastal protection; coastal zone management; decision analysis; decision making; environmental policy; flood; floodplain; human settlement; population density; sea level change; twenty first century; urban area
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; coastal protection; coastal zone management; decision analysis; decision making; environmental policy; flood; floodplain; human settlement; population density; sea level change; twenty first century; urban area
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117122
作者单位	Global Climate Forum (GCF), Neue Promenade 6, Berlin, 10178, Germany; Cluster of Excellence “The Future Ocean”, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Department of Economics, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, Kiel, 24118, Germany; Humboldt University, Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer Institute, Faculty of Life Sciences, Unter den Linden 6, Berlin, 10099, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lincke D.,Hinkel J.. Economically robust protection against 21st century sea-level rise[J],2018,51.
APA	Lincke D.,&Hinkel J..(2018).Economically robust protection against 21st century sea-level rise.Global Environmental change,51.
MLA	Lincke D.,et al."Economically robust protection against 21st century sea-level rise".Global Environmental change 51(2018).