气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003
	Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
	Haasnoot M.; van ’t Klooster S.; van Alphen J.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	273
结束页码	285
卷号	52
英文摘要	Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands. © 2018 Deltares
英文关键词	Adaptation pathways; Climate adaptation; Deep uncertainty; Early warning signals; Investment planning; Monitoring
学科领域	adaptive management; climate change; decision making; design; detection method; early warning system; future prospect; infrastructure; investment; monitoring system; uncertainty analysis; Netherlands
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; decision making; design; detection method; early warning system; future prospect; infrastructure; investment; monitoring system; uncertainty analysis; Netherlands
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117096
作者单位	Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, MH 2600, Netherlands; Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Policy and Management, Delft, Netherlands; SaviaAmersfoort, Netherlands; Staff Deltacommisioner, Den Haag, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haasnoot M.,van ’t Klooster S.,van Alphen J.. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change[J],2018,52.
APA	Haasnoot M.,van ’t Klooster S.,&van Alphen J..(2018).Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change.Global Environmental change,52.
MLA	Haasnoot M.,et al."Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change".Global Environmental change 52(2018).