气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands’ forage supply

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.007
	Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands’ forage supply
	Ferner J.; Schmidtlein S.; Guuroh R.T.; Lopatin J.; Linstädter A.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	24
结束页码	38
卷号	53
英文摘要	Livestock rearing is the most important agricultural activity in global drylands, making forage supply an essential ecosystem service (ES). Most drylands are expected to experience increasing levels of climatic aridity and land-use pressure in the future. As few studies account for combined effects of these global change drivers, we still have a limited understanding of how these drivers jointly shape forage supply. Here, the concept of social-ecological systems (SESs) is useful, as it helps to formalize the complex interrelationships of drivers. Taking advantage of steep gradients of climatic aridity and land-use pressure in West Africa, a crossed space-for-time substitution was applied to capture combined effects of climate and land-use change on forage supply. We have operationalized the SES concept via structural equation modelling, and analysed how drivers directly or indirectly affected forage quantity, quality and their integrated proxy (metabolisable energy yield). Results demonstrate that contemporary dryland SESs are mainly controlled by land-use, which has often been used as a proxy for other variables, such as climatic aridity. Aridity was also directly linked to a higher risk of vegetation degradation, indicating that future drylands will be less resilient to grazing pressures. The importance of land-use drivers for ES provision implies that sustainable grazing management could potentially mitigate detrimental climate change effects. However, model effects mediated by intermediate variables, such as aridity, short-term vegetation dynamics, and weather fluctuations, make it extremely difficult to predict climate change effects on ESs. Integrating structural equation modelling into the well-defined SES concept is thus highly useful to disentangle complex interdependencies of global change drivers in dryland rangelands, and to analyze drivers’ direct and indirect effects on ESs. Our novel approach can thus foster a deeper understanding of patterns and mechanisms driving ecosystem service supply in drylands, which is essential for establishing sustainable management under conditions of global change. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Fodder biomass; Global change; Metabolisable energy; Savanna ecosystem; Social-ecological system (SES); Structural equation modelling (SEM)
学科领域	aridity; biomass; climate change; climate effect; dryland farming; ecological modeling; global change; grazing management; land use change; nature-society relations; rangeland; savanna; terrestrial ecosystem; vegetation cover; vegetation dynamics; West Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aridity; biomass; climate change; climate effect; dryland farming; ecological modeling; global change; grazing management; land use change; nature-society relations; rangeland; savanna; terrestrial ecosystem; vegetation cover; vegetation dynamics; West Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117091
作者单位	University of Bonn, Centre for Remote Sensing of Land Surfaces, Genscherallee 3, Bonn, 53113, Germany; University of Cologne, Range Ecology and Range Management Group, Botanical Institute, Zülpicher Straße 47b, Cologne, 50674, Germany; University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Karlrobert-Kreiten-Strasse 13, Bonn, 53115, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Geography und Geoecology, Kaiserstraße 12, Karlsruhe, 76131, Germany; CSIR-Forestry Research Institute of Ghana, KNUST, P. O. Box UP 63, Kumasi, Ghana
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ferner J.,Schmidtlein S.,Guuroh R.T.,等. Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands’ forage supply[J],2018,53.
APA	Ferner J.,Schmidtlein S.,Guuroh R.T.,Lopatin J.,&Linstädter A..(2018).Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands’ forage supply.Global Environmental change,53.
MLA	Ferner J.,et al."Disentangling effects of climate and land-use change on West African drylands’ forage supply".Global Environmental change 53(2018).