气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.001
	Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways
	Yang P.; Yao Y.-F.; Mi Z.; Cao Y.-F.; Liao H.; Yu B.-Y.; Liang Q.-M.; Coffman D.M.; Wei Y.-M.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0959-3780
起始页码	225
结束页码	232
卷号	53
英文摘要	The Social Carbon Cost (SCC) measures present value of future economic damages caused by an additional ton of carbon emissions, and is widely used by governments to design climate policies. Although the use of SCC is very extensive, its predictions are very difficult. Because the SCC is defined by social welfare associated with economic growth and population, its estimation is necessarily dependent on future assumptions that are difficult to project. Many approaches consider the impact of population or economic growth on the SCC, but these socioeconomic factors must be grounded on solid assumptions concerning political, technological and environmental developments. Over the past seven years, the climate change research community has established five plausible socioeconomic narratives, called 'shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ (SSPs), numbered SSP1–SSP5. These scenarios provide descriptions of how the future might unfold in several key areas. To this end, we use the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) to update the SCC under the five socioeconomic pathways, while also considering alternative damage functions and the social welfare discount rate to address uncertainty. The result of the China Climate Change integrated assessment model (C3IAM) were used to re-estimate parameters in DICE, therefore characterize the SSPs. The results show that, in a world developing towards regional rivalry (SSP3), the SCC today will likely double compared with other scenarios. If emerged developing countries will follow the same path as previous industrializations (SSP5), the SCC will experience a rapid increase after 2060. Inequality (SSP4) will experience low mitigation pressure under a sustainable development scenario (SSP1), while the historical development pattern (SSP2) will have a moderate SCC with higher uncertainty. The results can provide carbon price benchmarks for policy makers who hold different attitudes towards the future and can help address the need to avoid regional rivalries and fossil-fueled development, which may counteract mitigation efforts. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	C3IAM; Climate change; DICE; Integrated assessment model; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Social cost of carbon
学科领域	carbon emission; climate change; cost analysis; developing world; economic growth; economic impact; environmental economics; environmental modeling; environmental policy; governance approach; integrated approach; socioeconomic conditions; sustainable development; welfare reform; China
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon emission; climate change; cost analysis; developing world; economic growth; economic impact; environmental economics; environmental modeling; environmental policy; governance approach; integrated approach; socioeconomic conditions; sustainable development; welfare reform; China
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117076
作者单位	Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London, WC1E 7HB, United Kingdom; Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Sinopec, Beijing 100101, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang P.,Yao Y.-F.,Mi Z.,et al. Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways[J],2018,53.
APA	Yang P..,Yao Y.-F..,Mi Z..,Cao Y.-F..,Liao H..,...&Wei Y.-M..(2018).Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways.Global Environmental change,53.
MLA	Yang P.,et al."Social cost of carbon under shared socioeconomic pathways".Global Environmental change 53(2018).