气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.05.009
	Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment
	Lucas P.L.; Hilderink H.B.M.; Janssen P.H.M.; KC S.; van Vuuren D.P.; Niessen L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	57
英文摘要	An estimated 26% of current global child deaths can be attributed to various and modifiable environmental factors, which are addressed under multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study assesses future reductions in child mortality in relation to the achievement of environment-related SDG targets. It uses projections of health risk factors from the IMAGE 3.0 Integrated Assessment Model, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), linked to a standard multi-state health model (GISMO), distinguishing risk factors, disease occurrence and cause-specific death. The study concludes that, on a global level, the SDG target on child mortality will not be achieved in any of the three SSP scenarios analysed, mainly due to persistent high mortality rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2030, environmental health risk factors – including childhood undernutrition, no access to improved drinking water and sanitation, no access to modern fuels and exposure to malaria – will still be responsible for 14% to 16% of total global child deaths (8% to 10% when excluding nutrition-related mortality). Under the middle-of-the-road SSP2 baseline scenario, achievement of the SDG targets on hunger, drinking water and sanitation and modern energy services, would avoid 433 thousand child deaths by 2030. If, in addition, also higher standards would be achieved for access to water and energy, as well as universal secondary female education and advanced malaria control, a total of 733 thousand child deaths is projected to be avoided by 2030 (444 thousand child deaths, when excluding nutrition-related mortality), which would reduce projected global child mortality by 13%. Overall, more than 25% of the child mortality reduction that is needed to achieve the SDG target in Sub-Saharan Africa can be achieved through SDG-related policies on food, water and energy. This requires integrated and intersectoral approaches to environmental health. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Child mortality; Environmental risk; Integrated analysis; Sustainable development goals
学科领域	assessment method; child mortality; disease control; environmental factor; environmental impact; environmental risk; female education; health status; integrated approach; sustainable development; South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; child mortality; disease control; environmental factor; environmental impact; environmental risk; female education; health status; integrated approach; sustainable development; South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/117042
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, Bilthoven, 3720 BA, Netherlands; Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, 99 Shangda Road, Shanghai, China; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria; Health Economics Unit, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool L38PQ, United Kingdom; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht, 3584 CS, Netherlands; Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, NW Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lucas P.L.,Hilderink H.B.M.,Janssen P.H.M.,等. Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment[J],2019,57.
APA	Lucas P.L.,Hilderink H.B.M.,Janssen P.H.M.,KC S.,van Vuuren D.P.,&Niessen L..(2019).Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment.Global Environmental change,57.
MLA	Lucas P.L.,et al."Future impacts of environmental factors on achieving the SDG target on child mortality—A synergistic assessment".Global Environmental change 57(2019).