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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102009
	The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union
	Haer T.; Husby T.G.; Botzen W.J.W.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	60
英文摘要	With increasing flood risk due to climate change and socioeconomic trends, governments are under pressure to continue implementing flood protection measures, such as dikes, to reduce flood risk. However, research suggests that a sole focus on government-funded flood protection leads to an adverse increase in exposure as people and economic activities tend to concentrate in protected areas. Moreover, governmental flood protection can reduce the incentive for autonomous adaptation by local households, which paradoxically results in more severe consequences if an extreme flood event occurs. This phenomenon is often referred to as the ‘safe development paradox’ or ‘levee effect’ and is generally not accounted for in existing flood risk models used to assess developments in future flood risk under climate change. In this study we assess the impact of extreme flood events for the European Union using a large-scale agent-based model (ABM). We quantify how the safe development paradox affects (1) population growth and the increase in exposed property values, (2) the reduction in investments to flood-proof buildings as public protection increases, and (3) the increase in potential damage should a flood occur. For this analysis, we apply an ABM that integrates the dynamic behaviour of governments and residents into a large-scale flood risk assessment framework, in which we include estimates of changing population growth. We find that the impact of extreme flood events increases considerably when governments provide high protection levels, especially in large metropolitan areas. Moreover, we demonstrate how policy that stimulates the flood-proofing of buildings can largely counteract the effects of the safe development paradox. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Adaptation policy; Agent-based model; Extreme events; Flood risk; Levee effect; Safe development paradox
学科领域	adaptive management; climate change; economic activity; European Union; extreme event; flash flood; flood; flood control; levee; model; population growth; risk assessment
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; economic activity; European Union; extreme event; flash flood; flood; flood control; levee; model; population growth; risk assessment
来源期刊	Global Environmental change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/116985
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, 1081HV, Netherlands; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, Netherlands; Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Risk Management and Decision Processes Centre, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haer T.,Husby T.G.,Botzen W.J.W.,et al. The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union[J],2020,60.
APA	Haer T.,Husby T.G.,Botzen W.J.W.,&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2020).The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union.Global Environmental change,60.
MLA	Haer T.,et al."The safe development paradox: An agent-based model for flood risk under climate change in the European Union".Global Environmental change 60(2020).