气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Design and evaluation of SVR, MARS and M5Tree models for 1, 2 and 3-day lead time forecasting of river flow data in a semiarid mountainous catchment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00477-018-1585-2
	Design and evaluation of SVR, MARS and M5Tree models for 1, 2 and 3-day lead time forecasting of river flow data in a semiarid mountainous catchment
	Yin, Zhenliang; Feng, Qi; Wen, Xiaohu; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Yang, Linshan; Si, Jianhua; He, Zhibin
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1436-3240
EISSN	1436-3259
卷号	32 期号:9
英文摘要	Accurate and reliable river flow forecasts attained with data-intelligent models can provide significant information about future water resources management. In this study we employed a 50-model ensemble of three data-driven predictive models, namely the support vector regression (SVR), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) to forecast river flow data in a semiarid and ecologically significant mountainous region of Pailugou catchment in northwestern China. To attain stable and accurate forecast results, 50 different models were trained by randomly sampling the entire river flow data into 80% for training and 20% for testing subsets. To attain a complete evaluation of the ensemble-model based results, the global mean of six quantitative statistical performance evaluation measures: the coefficient of correlation (R), mean absolute relative error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS), relative RMSE, and the Willmott's Index (WI), and Taylor diagrams, including skill scores relative to a persistence model, were selected to assess the performances of the developed predictive models. The results indicated that all of the averaged R value attained was higher than 0.900 and all of the averaged NS values were higher than 0.800, representing good performance of the SVR, MARS and M5Tree models applied in the 1-, 2- and 3-day ahead modeling horizon, and this also accorded with the deductions made through an assessment of the Willmott's Index. However, the M5Tree model outperformed both the SVR and MARS models (with NS = 0.917 vs. 0.904 and 0.901 for 1-day, 0.893 vs. 0.854 and 0.845 for 2-day, and 0.850 vs. 0.828 and 0.810 for 3-day forecasting horizons, respectively), which was in concurrence with the high value of WI. Therefore, based on the ensemble of 50 models, the performance of the M5Tree can be considered as superior to the SVR and MARS models when applied in a problem of river flow forecasting at multiple forecast horizon. A detailed comparison of the overall performance of all three models evaluated through Taylor diagrams and boxplots indicated that the 1-day ahead forecasting results were more accurate for all of the predictive models compared to the 2- and 3-day ahead forecasting horizons. Data-intelligent models designed in this study indicate that the M5Tree method could successfully be explored for short-term river flow forecasting in semiarid mountainous regions, which may have useful implications in water resources management, ecological sustainability and assessment of river systems.
关键词	River flow forecasting Support vector regression Multivariate adaptive regression spline M5Tree model Data-driven model
学科领域	Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Mathematics; Water Resources
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
来源期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/111990
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ecohydrol Inland River Basin, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Zhenliang,Feng, Qi,Wen, Xiaohu,et al. Design and evaluation of SVR, MARS and M5Tree models for 1, 2 and 3-day lead time forecasting of river flow data in a semiarid mountainous catchment[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2018,32(9).
APA	Yin, Zhenliang.,Feng, Qi.,Wen, Xiaohu.,Deo, Ravinesh C..,Yang, Linshan.,...&He, Zhibin.(2018).Design and evaluation of SVR, MARS and M5Tree models for 1, 2 and 3-day lead time forecasting of river flow data in a semiarid mountainous catchment.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(9).
MLA	Yin, Zhenliang,et al."Design and evaluation of SVR, MARS and M5Tree models for 1, 2 and 3-day lead time forecasting of river flow data in a semiarid mountainous catchment".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.9(2018).